Economic Headwinds or Politics? (Update)

There are more signs that the US is heading into a recession:

• Layoffs in digital advertising. Despite job growth overall, the number of jobs in online advertising has actually shrunk this year in absolute numbers.

Advertising and public relations lost 2,400 jobs in May despite an overall increase in US employment, per the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, a sign that the industry is beginning to wade through a period of uncertainty that will define the rest of 2022.(1)

• Social media platforms are showing remarkable declines in advertising revenue. Facebook had the worst quarter in Q1 since going public a decade ago.(2) That has led to a company-wide hiring freeze for the remainder of 2022.
• New business formation has been declining since mid 2021.(3) The current bright spot and exception is California, which is leading the nation in new business formation.

• College enrollment is declining, which is going to particularly impact small and medium size cities that are dependent on education as a major employer.(4)

At the same time we have to consider that this is an election year, oilmen typically favor the GOP, and big oil is taking record profits.(4) We know that oil prices are a drag on the economy, already hit by rising interest rates, and that the pain will be felt most acutely by those who can’t afford electric cars.

Source: Business Insider (4)

So, how much of our current situation is the result of events and how much of it is staged to influence the election?

Sources:

1. https://www.emarketer.com/content/ad-industry-layoffs-are-on-the-way?ecid=NL1001&utm_campaign=eDaily+6.9.2022+CORE&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Triggermail&utm_term=eMarketer+Daily+CORE%2fEMEA+(Mon-Fri)
2. https://www.emarketer.com/content/meta-faces-facebook-s-real-world-problems?_gl=1d4bnbl_gaNjE5ODAyMTg5LjE2NTQ3ODYzNzg._ga_XXYLHB9SXG*MTY1NDc4NjM3OC4xLjAuMTY1NDc4NjM3OC4w
3. https://www.census.gov/econ/bfs/data.html
4. https://dnyuz.com/2022/05/26/college-enrollment-drops-even-as-the-pandemics-effects-ebb/
5. https://www.businessinsider.com/gas-prices-oil-company-profits-skyrocketing-energy-sector-earnings-charts-2022-5?op=1