This is a great article about over-analyzing a market.
The subtitle should be: why you don’t see ads for things you might want, and see too many ads for things you already bought or don’t want.
I know this problem well from personal experience. Every so often, my wife and I go to Vegas to visit a daughter and granddaughter. We don’t gamble. However, when we return, we get deluged with offers of gambling junkets to Vegas. Southwest Airlines is perhaps the worst culprit.
For small businesses and “solepreneurs”, the lesson is obvious: beware of snake oil salespeople selling ad tech. Their targeting tools may allow your message to reach a null market!