Coronavirus Wave ?

As you should know by now, we into the next coronavirus surge.

Hospitals have seen a 46% rise in coronavirus cases.(1) Deaths are still running at a constant rate of 800 per day, higher in fact than the average daily rate in war time. As hospitalization increase, we expect deaths to increase as well, lagging hospitalizations by one to two weeks.

And the Trump administration is saying the pandemic is over. Really. Hopefully, the GOP rank-and-file will begin now to realize just how blatantly dishonest they are.

We’re expecting another 250,000 deaths between now and February. By that time, most people in the US will know someone who has died from the virus.

The problem with the uptick in hospitalizations is that the center of the infection has shifted from the major cities with ample medical resources to the South and Great Plains, where these resources are much less plentiful. The peak hot spots today include (in no particular order)

  • South Dakota, reeling from the Sturgis motorcycle rally and Trump’s event at Mount Rushmore
  • Wyoming
  • Wisconsin
  • Montana
  • Colorado
  • Tennessee
  • Alabama

The states outside this region that have seen upticks in cases include Alaska, Connecticut and Rhode Island. October 28, 2020

This is a very different picture than we saw in June. July 20, 2020

The situation clearly has gotten better in the Northeast and West Coast, and worse in between.

Other notes:

  • With the inability of humans to develop antibodies to the coronavirus, most vaccines being testing are likely not to work. They may not kill anyone, but they also may not help. As documented in a prior post, the incidence of antibodies in humans is only 10% of what’s required for herd immunity, and most vaccines are based on developing these antibodies.
  • There a good article about why to be skeptical about the ability of Vitamin D supplementation to combat Covid-19.(2) Basically, there are too many other variables including age that impact both Vitamin D levels and infection rates. Any link between the vitamin and infection may simply be a byproduct of these other factors. In statistical terms, the link between Vitamin D deficiency and Covid infection and death may be a “spurious correlation.” Don’t bet your life on it until much better information is available.




  1. The one thought I have here is where you say that rank-and-file Republicans might see the handling of the pandemic as what it is – inept.
    I think that if somebody was with Trump at the start of the year, they will still be with him now. Corona will not have swayed them.
    Dare I say that it was clear that Trump was unsuitable from the off, and he was only elected because the Democrats managed to pick someone even more unsuitable (in the eyes of the electorate).


  2. You’re probably right about his followers, although the ones who have lost family members to the virus seem to be pretty upset with him. In terms of the last election, you are quite right. The Democrats were largely victims of “groupthink.” More people detested Hillary than Trump. This time, the reverse is true.


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.