Politicians Versus Reality

Covid is under control, you heard that, right?

“If we stop testing right now, we’d have very few cases, if any.”

Donald Trump, June 15, 2020

OK, you can play games with testing, but what about actual hospital admissions and deaths?

Texas through 06/24/2020. Texas has passed the highest daily rate achieved in New Jersey (3,972 on April 4th), the number 2 state for illness and deaths since the outbreak in New York City. Texas could challenge New York for the number one spot. The New York record was 10,824 new cases per day on April 9th. Texas lacks the hospital beds that New York and New Jersey have.

Note: John Hopkins reports data in three-day moving averages. That smooths the graph, eliminating the full extent of daily gyrations, but also means that the current data will be worse than shown.

Here are some medical headlines from the last seven days:

Texas Children’s [Hospital] admits adult patients as COVID-19 cases surge

https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/patient-flow/texas-children-s-admits-adult-patients-as-covid-19-cases-surge.html?origin=BHRE&utm_source=BHRE&utm_medium=email&oly_enc_id=8808A6410178J6C

California hospital suspends admission of non-COVID-19 patients after spike in cases among staff

https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/patient-flow/california-hospital-suspends-admission-of-non-covid-19-patients-after-spike-in-cases-among-staff.html

Healthcare leaders urge LA County to reopen COVID-19 surge hospital

https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/patient-flow/healthcare-leaders-urge-la-county-to-reopen-covid-19-surge-hospital.html

Florida to increase inspections of businesses as coronavirus cases surge.

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2020/06/21/Florida-to-increase-inspections-of-businesses-as-coronavirus-cases-surge/3371592755300/

Phoenix requires masks in public as coronavirus cases surge

https://www.foxnews.com/us/phoenix-requires-masks-in-public-as-coronavirus-cases-surge

Utah hospital leaders beg residents to wear face masks amid COVID-19 surge

Desert News, June 23, 2020

And tonight . . .

97% of ICU beds at Texas Medical Center occupied as Covid-19 cases reach record highs

https://www.khou.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/texas-hospital-icus-crowded-with-covid-19-patients-as-coronavirus-continues-to-spread/285-aad0788d-256e-4454-8e3f-87f9c7956680

These states have ICU bed utilization rates of 70% or higher (CDC data):

1. Alabama
2. Arizona
3. Georgia
4. Maryland
5. Massachusetts
6. Mississippi
7. North Carolina
8. South Dakota
9. South Carolina
10. Tennessee

Arizona has 84% utilization of ICU beds now, up from 78% three days ago and climbing.

Among these states, only Massachusetts has no growth in new cases.

Only three states are now assessed as having the virus under control:

1. New Jersey
2. New York
3. Massachusetts

New Jersey. Typical of the three states that have made it across this wave.

Does that sound like the virus is under control? Instead, it may be getting worse.

The New Jersey Health Commissioner noted a disturbing trend:

1. 22% of new cases are between the ages of 18 and 29
2. Among these 650 cases, more than 50 have died, which is a much higher death rate than we have seen thus far with Covid.

Florida, Tennessee and Arizona also have reported growth in the disease among those under age 40. Is this a new mutation?

Sources:

1. https://www.cdc.gov/nhsn/covid19/report-patient-impact.html
2. Becker’s Hospital Review4\
3. Desert News
4. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases-50-states
5. https://www.khou.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/texas-hospital-icus-crowded-with-covid-19-patients-as-coronavirus-continues-to-spread/285-aad0788d-256e-4454-8e3f-87f9c7956680