Immigration and the New American Reality

Standard

“I don’t want my child to grow up in the US.”

That’s a simple and direct statement from a financial professional who moved to Europe earlier this year. Her child will grow up learning between four and six languages and without the attitude/belligerence she sees in US schools. Plus college and healthcare are free.

Europeans pay high taxes. However, because so many expenses are included in those taxes, they have more money available to spend than most Americans do. That’s driving a faster economic recover in Europe than the US is seeing.

That prompted me to look at the data on migration. What are the trends? You might be surprised.

  1. Both legal and illegal immigration peaked prior to the recession in late 2008. The trends since are downward. The declines started during the Obama administration.
    • The illegal immigrant population peaked at 12.2 million in 2007.(2)
  2. Most illegal immigrants living in the US have been in the US for more than ten years. They are homeowners and taxpayers.
  3. Mexico no longer accounts for a majority of illegal immigrants. The majority now from from a combination of Central America and Asia.
  4. Mexico provides the largest number of LEGAL immigrants to the US. (1) Most Hispanic residents in the US are legal residents. (3)
  5. Recent immigrants from Mexico tend to work in the US for a few years and then return to Mexico. Pew reported in 2012 that net immigration from Mexico was zero, with the number of people leaving the US matching the number entering.
    • This “breakeven” has little to do with US immigration enforcement. People are leaving for a lower cost of living and better social services.

FT_17.04.17_unauthorized_update_2015-1The State Department estimates that 9 million US (non-military) citizens are now residents of other countries. That’s up from 4 million in 1999. However, the government has no formal mechanism for tracking citizens who move overseas. The actual number could be lower or much higher.

  • Seniors are part of the out-migration. Financial advisors recommend considering moves to places like Costa Rica in order to be able to maintain a reasonable standard of living on Medicare. (5)

The US is changing relative to other countries. There are a growing number of valid reasons for not wanting to live here, and that will have an impact on the economy and employment in the future — probably driving more jobs and business investment offshore. Don’t expect driving people and money out of the US to improve job prospects and the economy here. That’s naive in the extreme.


Sources:

  1. Homeland Security, “Yearbook of Immigration Statistics 2015.” https://www.dhs.gov/immigration-statistics/yearbook/2015/
  2. Jeffrey Passel and D’Vera Cohn, “As Mexican share declined, U.S. unauthorized immigrant population fell in 2015 below recession level,” Pew Research Center, 25 April 2017. http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/04/25/as-mexican-share-declined-u-s-unauthorized-immigrant-population-fell-in-2015-below-recession-level/
  3. Jie Zong and Jeanne Batalova, “Frequently Requested Statistics on Immigrants and Immigration in the United States,” Migration Policy Institute, 8 March 2017. http://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/frequently-requested-statistics-immigrants-and-immigration-united-states
  4. US State Department, “CA by the Numbers,” updated June 2016.  https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/travel/CA_By_the_Numbers.pdf
  5. “Retire Overseas . . . and Live Better for Less . . . ” International Living, undated.  https://www.internationalliving-magazine.com/?gclid=COyAv7-tytQCFYWNswodZNkMcw
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